UN 46: Collaborations for the Northwest Pacific Marine Ecosystem Prediction (COSMEC)

IOC Sub-Commission for the Western Pacific (WESTPAC)

Advancing knowledge and cooperation for a healthy ocean and prosperous society

Why is it important?

Climate change and human activities are accelerating transformations in marine environments. The Northwest Pacific Ocean, characterized by large variability along the boundary between low and high latitudes, is among the most biodiverse ocean regions in the world. This region experiences large spatio-temporal variations in the marine environment due to the interaction of arctic, subarctic, subtropical, and tropical environments within a relatively narrow range driven by ocean circulation. Its unique oceanographic complexity and biodiversity make it highly vulnerable to warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and related environmental threats. These stressors threaten marine biodiversity, disrupt fisheries, and undermine the livelihoods of coastal communities

There is growing recognition worldwide of the need not only to maintain and conserve the marine environment, but also to actively regenerate and restore ocean ecosystems. This underscores the importance of scientifically elucidating and accurately predicting the mechanisms driving marine ecosystem change, thereby strengthening climate change projections and enabling effective adaptation and mitigation actions. Achieving these goals requires advanced, interdisciplinary, and internationally collaborations, spanning marine ecosystem observations, integrated assessments, analyses, and predictive modeling.

What We Do?

The IOC Sub-Commission for the Western Pacific (WESTPAC), at its Fifteenth Intergovernmental Session (WESTPAC-XV, 11-13 March 2025, Tokyo, Japan), established a new programme entitled “Collaborations for the Northwest Pacific Marine Ecosystem Prediction (COSMEC)” in response to the urgent need to better understand and predict marine ecosystem changes in the Northwest Pacific region. In September 2025, the Sub-Commission officially registered COSMEC as a UN Ocean Decade Programme (UN 46).

Aligned with the Decade’s mission to stimulate ocean science and knowledge-based solutions, UN 46: COSMEC is driven by two high-level objectives:

To advance scientific understanding based on marine ecosystem observation data and to develop the quantification and formulation required for numerical models and
To develop Earth System Models (ESMs) that incorporate marine ecosystem processes and provide predictive information.

The COSMEC integrates advanced observation systems, such as BGC Argo floats and eDNA, with innovative modeling and AI-driven analytics to understand and predict marine ecosystem changes. These efforts contribute to informed decision-making for sustainable fisheries, biodiversity conservation, and climate resilience. The COSMEC also promotes co-design and co-delivery of science with diverse stakeholders, ensuring that scientific outputs address real-world needs. It facilitates open data sharing, capacity development, and equitable access to tools and knowledge, particularly benefiting ECOPs, graduate students, and countries with limited ocean science infrastructure. By strengthening regional collaboration across WESTPAC member states and beyond, the COSMEC not only advances scientific excellence but also builds a foundation for transformative ocean governance in support of the Ocean Decade’s societal outcomes.

IOC Sub-Commission for the Western Pacific (WESTPAC)